Economist Discusses Global Economic Outlook to SDSU Audience

The Fowler College of Business at San Diego State University hosted BofA’s head of the global economics research team, Ethan Harris, who shared his outlook on the world economy during an online presentation to a diverse group of more than 120 attendees composed of the college’s students, staff, faculty and SDSU community on December 7, 2020.

Ethan Harris, Head of Global Economics, BofA presents the 2021 Global Economic Outlook.

Bruce Reinig, the Thomas and Evelyn Page interim dean of the Fowler College of Business, served as the lecture’s moderator, which was co-hosted by the Center for Advancing Global Business.

Harris kicked-off the lecture by discussing the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, which he saw as creating a “significant re-engagement in the economy” for next spring. “Both the U.S. and the global economy should look a lot different six months from now,” he said. “Right now, the problem, of course, is that we’ve got to get through these next few months and it’s going to be painful.”

After acknowledging that the holidays and “massive pandemic fatigue” was an ongoing issue, Harris said he didn’t foresee the number of COVID-19 positivity cases going down in the near future. He also noted that “as a country, people learned to shop differently, go out less and wear masks “so the economy can keep growing, but at a diminished rate.”

Harris also discussed other economic issues that are on the minds of many Americans, including:

• A new fiscal stimulus package: Harris called fiscal stimulus a necessary component to re-igniting the economy, but he warned that Congressional passage would be difficult.
• Employment: If anything prompts the federal government to act on a stimulus package, it would be high unemployment numbers, said Harris.
• A federal stimulus package: This could serve as a tool to get the U.S. economy back on the right track, according to Harris. He said the funding could address unemployment benefits, delay foreclosures and rent payments and provide aid to small businesses and local governments.
• Interest rates: Harris forecast that interest rates, wage growth and inflation will likely remain low in the near term.
• The U.S. stock markets: During the question-and-answer session of the presentation, Harris responded to a question from the audience by explaining that he was “quite worried” about the recent record highs in U.S. stock markets, say that the market was reacting to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and that the current market was “vulnerable to bad news.”

As the presentation wrapped up, Harris shared with the students in the audience that they were facing a challenging employment environment but that it wouldn’t be as painful as it was for students who entered the workforce during the previous year. He advised student job seekers to “network yourself to death, talk to anyone who will talk to you, and figure out where the demand is and lean in that direction.”